Labour is a force to be reckoned with in Wales, winning every Senedd election since its creation in 1999 and holding the most seats in all general elections since 1922. This 100-year domination arguably made them the most dominant political force in Europe. But recently, with a faltering Labour party and stagnating economy, frustration is growing, and things are beginning to change.
Yr Pobl a Reform – The People and Reform
Wales’ political landscape cannot be understood without first examining the people who shape it. Once one of Europe’s most heavily industrialised nations, the country’s identity has long been intertwined with the Labour movement. Generations of working-class, Labour-voting communities, coupled with Wales’ status as one of the UK’s less affluent regions, have historically anchored it to the left.
But a shift familiar across much of Europe is now emerging. Traditional working-class voters, once the backbone of left-wing politics, are increasingly drifting rightward. For decades, left-leaning parties drew their strength from campaigns centred on workers’ rights and economic reform. Today, however, the political realignment appears to be reversing old assumptions globally; middle-class, urban voters who previously leaned centrist or conservative are moving left, while more economically deprived communities are turning to the far right. Wales is not immune to this and is a prime example of these patterns.
Many analysts interpret this as a reaction to what some voters see as a departure from the left’s traditional priorities. As parties place greater emphasis on social issues, a section of Wales’ industrial heartlands, which have always been socially conservative (blue Labour), feels overlooked. The results of the belief that successive governments have failed to address the structural challenges that define their daily lives is a growing sense of disenfranchisement.
This has seen Reform becoming a major player in the upcoming Senedd for the first time. There is clear great intention from Reform to succeed in Wales to not just upset the status quo but establish themselves as a serious party with legitimate and large ambitions, as well as to quash one of their largest criticism, that they are inexperienced. With them launching their 2024 manifesto in Merthyr Tydfil, Wales, it is clear to see they have their eyes set on the Senedd elections. Wales’ resilience to vote Conservative stems from its working-class roots and the political choices of Margaret Thatcher, which saw the closing of mines and decimation of the economy and livelihoods of large swathes of Welsh towns. For this reason, there is a generational trend of never voting Tory in Wales, even if you were a more conservative person. With there never really being an alternative, it allowed Labour to dominate, but with a new right-wing party in reform, the cracks in Labours’ shaky ground have shown, and for a while, Reform was leading the polls in Wales and came second in 13 constituencies in the 2024 general election. The stage is set for Reform to be the first right-wing government in Wales’ history.
Cwymp Llafur – The Fall of Labour
Labour’s recent difficulties in Wales stem from a combination of long-term political fatigue, internal controversies, and wider dissatisfaction with the UK Government.
Firstly, for any party that has been the dominant party for 25 years, some degree of voter weariness was inevitable. In fact, I would say it’s been surprising that the Labour Party has remained this stable in Wales despite Wales struggling disproportionately compared to the rest of the UK.
The scandals that have plagued Welsh Labour have contributed to this shift. Following the resignation of ex-First Minister Mark Drakeford, the leadership contest brought increased attention to the party’s internal dynamics . The eventual winner, Vaughn Gething, ran into controversy almost immediately, as during his campaign he received £200,000 in donations from a controversial millionaire, David Neal, who has been charged with environmental offences. Additional scrutiny arose from a COVID-19 probe where Vaugh Gething was found to have sent “I’m deleting the messages in this group they can be captured in an FOI and I think we are all in the right place on the choice being made,” to a group chat and unsurprisingly drew criticism.
There have been several unpopular policies that have been introduced, including the infamous 20mph policy, which, despite seeing significant drop-offs in road deaths, sees 72% of the Welsh public disapprove of the policy, along with the proposed banning of some meal deals. Leading to some critics labelling the government a “nanny state.”
At the same time, frustrations have risen from the unwillingness of the Welsh government to confront Westminster over controversy surrounding rail funding, which has seen the designation of HS2 as an England and Wales project, estimated to cost Wales £4billion, creating an opening for opposition parties to criticise Labour’s weak approach.
Finally, the sever unpopularity of the current Labour government means it is inevitable for the associated Labour Welsh Government to ‘catch some strays,’ as it were. 57% of the Welsh public believe Wales received less than its fair share of funding from Westminster. Just 67% of Welsh people believe the UK government is doing a bad job with just with just 10% believing they are doing a good job. While Eluned Morgan has made efforts to distance herself from Kier Starmer, she has withheld from outwardly criticising him, this sees the perception of the Welsh government be slightly more favourable but not significantly enough to make any difference. This has left just 24% of 2024 Labour voters intending on voting for Labour again in May.
Codi Plaid – The Rise of Plaid
Plaid have consistently been a large player in Senedd elections, never achieving fewer than 11 seats in the Senedd since devolution. They have not seen so much success on the UK stage, where the most MPs in Westminster they have achieved is 4. As the pro-independence, nationalist party of Wales, Plaid have maintained a loyal core vote, though the policy of independence has pushed a large number of voters away from the party as support for independence itself has traditionally been lower than in Scotland, sitting around 20-25%. Recent polls are showing a recent rise in pro-independence sentiment, particularly among young voters, sitting at 33%. As Greens and Lib Dems historically enjoy modest popularity in Wales, a collapse of the Labour vote of this magnitude disproportionately benefits Plaid.
One factor contributing to Plaid’s recent momentum is their more measured approach to independence under the current leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth. Their 2024 manifesto limited independence to just 2 pages, signalling a strategic shift toward broader policy priorities. Rhun ap Iorwerth has also stated that he will not pursue an independence referendum in his first term if he becomes first minister. This has seen him enjoy the highest approval ratings of any leader in Wales, with a +11 approval compared to -25 for Eluned Morgan and -59 for Keir Starmer.
This recalibration has helped win over disillusioned Labour voters who would previously more commonly move to the Liberal Democrats or Greens instead of Plaid. Welsh identity has been seen to play a role in who people vote for, and, unsurprisingly, people who identify as Welsh have further consolidated their vote around Plaid. However, interestingly, voters who identify as British have moved significantly towards Plaid instead of Labour. This suggests a broader realignment rather than a purely identity-driven movement and reflects Labour’s struggles in Wales.
Reform UK, meanwhile, has faced difficulties of their own. The party’s momentum has been stunted by controversies involving former leader of Reform in Wales, Nathan, Gill being found guilty of taking Russian bribes. This issue, combined with Wales’s longstanding reluctance to back right-wing parties, has contributed to a plateau in Reform’s polling. As more former conservatives move toward Reform, the Welsh’s perspectives on the Tory’s means Reform is digging a deeper hole.
Taken together, with the uptick in pro-independence sentiment, the fall of Labour, the relative stability of Plaid, and the less divided left-wing vote in Wales, have all culminated in the meteoric rise in the polls of Plaid.
Etholiad Ychwanegol Caerphilly – Caerphilly By-Election
The Caerphilly by-election has been a catalyst for change in Welsh politics. Caerphilly has never voted anything but Labour in over a century, making it one of the most symbolically important strongholds for Labour. That was until 23rd October 2025, when a Senedd by-election was held due to the tragic passing of MS Hefin David.
In what was expected to be a close 3 horse race between Labour, who had previously won the seat with 46% of the vote, Plaid, and Reform, ended up being quite a different story. Plaid secured the seat comfortably with 47% of the vote, with Reform behind by 11 points and Labour on a measly 11% of the vote.
The sheer scale of the shift signified quite a shift in Welsh politics. An industrial, working-class valleys town, Caerphilly, is the definition and embodiment of Labour’s roots, voting convincingly for Plaid instead, marking a notable departure from historic voting patterns.
While tactical voting may have had a role to play, a Britain Predicts polls suggests removing tactical voting would reduce Plaids vote share by just 6%. Even accounting for that, the victory would still be a real beacon of change.
Edrych ymlaen at Etholiadau Senedd 2026 – Looking Forward to the 2026 Senedd Elections
As Wales moves towards the 2026 Senedd elections, the political landscape appears to be entering a period of real volatility and possibility.
The 2026 Senedd election will be the first held under Wales’ new voting system. Increasing the number of seats to 96 instead of 60, chosen from 16 larger constituencies, within which 6 seats are given out proportionately to those who pass the vote threshold within that constituency. This is designed to make the Senedd more representative of the vote share and reduce the number of safe seats. This is to the benefit of smaller, upcoming parties such as Plaid and Reform, who have suffered from tactical voting in previous elections. The new system adds another layer of unpredictability to the 2026 elections.
Polling shifts such as the recent YouGov poll showing Plaid opening up a 14-point lead over Reform, who were previously touted as favourites, suggest that long-established patterns in the previously stable Welsh politics may be loosening. While polls are only snapshots, they highlight how quickly voter sentiment can evolve and how open the field remains.
If these trends were reflected on election day, Wales could see one of the most consequential realignments since devolution began. The prospect of a pro-independence coalition between Plaid and the Greens, without Labour, would mark a dramatic departure from the political norms of the past two decades. It would also invite comparisons with Scotland’s 2011 election, when the SNP’s breakthrough cemented themselves as a major political player for years to come.
What ultimately happens in 2026 will depend on how parties campaign in the remaining days leading up to the election. But one thing is clear: Welsh politics is heading into a defining moment, and the outcome will have potential implications on a UK-wide scale.
